APPENDIX: Regional Agrotourism Exposure
warmth produced an agricultural disaster declaration across 31 New York counties, with statewide apple losses estimated near 20 percent and much larger losses at some orchards and vineyard blocks. Because the freeze preceded the formal 2023 El Niño declaration, it is better presented as warm-spring volatility than strict ENSO attribution. Warmer winters have also shortened maple collection, while delayed foliage can shift peak demand relative to campaign timing; the available research does not isolate El Niño as the sole driver of either trend. Campaign calendars should therefore be adjustable rather than tied permanently to historic peak dates. Florida and the Southeast Florida citrus is a counterexample to a simple El Niño-loss narrative. Severe crop-damaging freezes have often occurred during ENSO-neutral winters, while both El Niño and La Niña circulation patterns can reduce the likelihood of the coldest intrusions. Individual outbreaks can still cause major losses during a developing event, and citrus greening, hurricanes and storm track may matter more than ENSO phase. Destination organizations should describe El Niño winters as probabilistically favorable for citrus tourism, not guaranteed protection. Texas Hill Country and the Southern Plains El Niño winter and spring precipitation can provide welcome drought relief for Hill Country wineries and peach operations, but the benefit may be temporary or reversed by a following La Niña. Declining chill-hour accumulation is a separate long-term risk that can limit fruit set even in a wetter year. Because many operators combine orchard, winery, retail, events and wholesale activity, one production shock can affect several revenue streams at once. Prairies and Corn Belt Pumpkin patches, corn mazes and harvest festivals operate mainly in early autumn, outside El Niño’s strongest winter signal. Warm, dry conditions can support pumpkin production and visitor comfort, yet the same pattern can deepen an existing drought, reduce corn-maze height and strain the row-crop side of a diversified farm. The appropriate planning question is therefore not whether El Niño is categorically good or bad, but how current soil moisture and drought conditions interact with the seasonal outlook.
This appendix summarizes the principal regional mechanisms identified in the source research. Figures describe sector exposure or documented losses during El Niño-influenced periods; they should not be treated as proof that ENSO alone caused every outcome. Each regional entry distinguishes the operating mechanism from the headline climate phase. The practical value is in identifying what to monitor—chill accumulation, bloom timing, drought, access, crop quality or visitor-season timing—and in matching that indicator to a contingency plan. Quebec and Atlantic Canada Quebec’s maple and sugar-shack economy depends on sustained freezing nights followed by thawing days. Earlier, less stable springs can shift or compress the season; Nova Scotia research has documented a substantial long-term decline in sap yields as production begins earlier. Mild El Niño winters create a plausible version of the same risk, but destination organizations should not substitute the ENSO label for local evidence. Tracking season start, season length, yield and visitor timing year over year provides a stronger planning record. Ontario Niagara icewine offers a direct product mechanism because grapes must remain on the vine until temperatures reach at least -8°C. Warm winters can ripen fruit early, delay harvest cold and dehydrate grapes before the required freeze. Growers also identified the developing 2015–16 El Niño as a risk to apples through early dormancy break followed by frost. The visitor-economy exposure is material: a large share of VQA wine and most icewine is sold directly through winery retail, and Ontario’s broader agritourism economy was valued at C$633 million ($481 million) annually. Outcomes still depend on timing; a mild winter can produce an adequate harvest if cold arrives during the correct window. Upstate New York and New England Finger Lakes and Hudson Valley wine, tree fruit, fall foliage and maple syrup create several climate-sensitive visitor seasons. New York’s wine sector supports substantial visitor spending, while fall foliage is a major regional travel product across New England. The 2015–16 winter was much warmer than normal and was followed by the region’s driest and warmest growing season in 50 years. A May 2023 freeze after early
CONCLUSION
Across six major El Niño cycles since 1982, the destination organizations that fared best shared a common posture: they treated El Niño as a recurring, forecastable planning variable rather than an unpredictable act of nature, communicated with their communities and visitors in the language of probability rather than promise, and used the months of forecast lead time NOAA reliably provides to diversify product, coordinate with public-safety partners and adjust messaging by region rather than applying
a single uniform narrative. As a very strong and potentially record-setting El Niño develops for winter 2026–27, those same practices—not a new playbook but the disciplined application of lessons already documented across 1982-83, 1991–92, 1997–98, 2002–03, 2009–10, 2015–16 and 2023–24—offer the clearest path for U.S. and Canadian destination organizations to protect both their visitor economies and their community relationships through the coming cycle.
A Note on Sources This report draws on peer-reviewed climate-economics research, NOAA and Climate Prediction Center primary forecast products, federal and state agency assessments (including the California Coastal Commission and California Ocean Protection Council), contemporaneous news coverage of individual El Niño winters and current industry guidance from Destinations International and allied tourism-research organizations. Full citations appear as footnotes throughout. Given the fast-moving nature of the developing 2026–27 event, destination organizations are encouraged to consult NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center directly (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) for the most current monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussion ahead of any planning decision.
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