EXECUTIVE SUMMARY El Niño is not a single storm or a single season; it is a recurring climate pattern that has reshuffled visitor demand across North America roughly once every two to seven years since long before modern tourism marketing existed. For destination organizations, El Niño has often coincided with uneven destination outcomes, creating more favorable conditions for some places and more difficult conditions for others, sometimes in ways that differ from the previous cycle’s pattern. This report examines how U.S. and Canadian destination organizations have experienced and responded to the major El Niño events since 1990 and draws thematic lessons for the unfolding 2026–27 El Niño cycle.
MAIN FINDINGS
• El Niño’s tourism impact is bifurcated by geography . It has historically depressed visitation and revenue for the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies and Western Canadian winter destination organizations while often benefiting southern U.S. and Gulf Coast destinations through milder winters and stronger snowbird demand. • Available evidence suggests destination organizations were better positioned when they treated El Niño as a forecastable planning input , using seasonal outlooks to inform marketing, budgeting and stakeholder communication. They relied on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) seasonal outlooks months in advance, rather than as an unforecastable act of nature. • Transparent communication about uncertainty, avoiding overpromising and diversifying visitor bases rather than relying on a single weather-dependent product are key to preserving community and stakeholder trust. With CPC’s October 2026 outlook giving a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter and a 83 percent chance that it will surpass every event on record since 1950, the lessons of the past six cycles are directly actionable for destination organizations planning their next 12 to 18 months of marketing, budgeting and stakeholder communications.
Orange Beach, AL
Whistler, BC, Canada
Contents Executive Summary.......................................................................3 A Primer on El Niño for Destination Leaders.........................4 2026-27 El Niño Cycle: Regional Impact, Implications.......5 Economic and Tourism Impacts Across Six El Niño Cycles..............................................................6 Destination Organization Playbook.......................................10 Recommended Preparedness Actions for 2026–27...........15 Conclusion...................................................................................... 18 Appendix......................................................................................... 19 References...................................................................................... 21
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