A PRIMER ON EL NIÑO FOR DESTINATION LEADERS
2026-27 EL NIÑO CYCLE: REGIONAL IMPACT, IMPLICATIONS
Great Lakes and U.S. Northeast destinations should plan for a warmer-than-normal early winter—with wet storms that may fall as rain rather than snow—and should prepare contingency messaging for skiing and early-season agritourism products. Mid-Atlantic coastal destinations should anticipate flooding risk as El Niño compounds the effects of long- term sea-level rise. NOAA’s 2026–27 outlook projects 15–20 high-tide flooding days across the region, with most monitoring stations potentially meeting or exceeding previous records. Increased onshore winds and storm activity during the October–April cool season could further elevate flooding risks, threatening infrastructure and visitor access. Southern U.S. Atlantic Coast and Gulf Coast destinations should note that El Niño has contributed to unusually subdued Atlantic hurricane activity in 2026. NOAA’s August update gave a 75 percent chance of a below-normal season, and no Atlantic hurricane had formed by late September, the latest on record since at least 1967. Hurricane Isaias and three tropical storms nonetheless made landfall along the Gulf Coast, a reminder that a quiet season is not a safe one.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a cyclical shift in Pacific Ocean surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure that recurs irregularly, typically every two to seven years. El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific rise at least 0.5°C above the long-term average for several consecutive months, weakening the easterly trade winds that normally push warm water toward Asia. The practical consequence for North America is a southward shift in the Pacific
jet stream, which tends to steer winter storms across the southern tier of the United States while leaving the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies and much of Canada milder and drier than average. The strongest events on record—1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16—produced the most extreme and best-documented tourism disruptions, which is why this report weights those cycles heavily even as it also traces the more moderate 1991–92, 2002–03, 2009–10 and 2023–24 events.
If the 2026–27 event develops as currently forecast, the historical pattern documented in this report suggests destination organizations should plan around the following working assumptions, understanding that any single event can deviate from historical precedent: Pacific Northwest and Western Canada mountain destinations should plan for a below-average, later- starting snow season, consistent with the pattern observed during previous major cycles and should activate snowmaking, marketing contingency and multi- resort pass messaging earlier in the fall than usual. Hawaii and Pacific Coast destinations face heightened coastal hazards following an exceptionally active hurricane season. By mid-October, three Category 5 hurricanes had formed, and accumulated cyclone energy surpassed the 2018 record. With El Niño-related sea-level anomalies potentially amplifying high tides, destinations should coordinate with emergency managers on beach access, ocean safety, transportation disruptions, and visitor rebooking. These hazards may compound El Niño- related winter storm risks. Southern Rocky Mountain destinations should prepare for an increased likelihood of above-average precipitation during the 2026–27 winter, with potential for substantial mountain snowfall, heavy rainfall, and localized flooding. Individual storms may produce significant snow accumulation at higher elevations while triggering flooding in lower- elevation communities, posing simultaneous risks to transportation, infrastructure, and visitor access.
A map of the United States, Canada, Central America and part of South America showing the effects of El Niño during winter in the Northern Hemisphere. (Image credit: NOAA)
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