WEATHERING THE 2026–27 EL NIÑO CYCLE A Guide for Destination Organizations Based on Experiences During Past Major El Niño Cycles, 1990–Present
A DESTINATIONS INTERNATIONAL INDUSTRY BRIEF
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY El Niño is not a single storm or a single season; it is a recurring climate pattern that has reshuffled visitor demand across North America roughly once every two to seven years since long before modern tourism marketing existed. For destination organizations, El Niño has often coincided with uneven destination outcomes, creating more favorable conditions for some places and more difficult conditions for others, sometimes in ways that differ from the previous cycle’s pattern. This report examines how U.S. and Canadian destination organizations have experienced and responded to the major El Niño events since 1990 and draws thematic lessons for the unfolding 2026–27 El Niño cycle.
MAIN FINDINGS
• El Niño’s tourism impact is bifurcated by geography . It has historically depressed visitation and revenue for the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies and Western Canadian winter destination organizations while often benefiting southern U.S. and Gulf Coast destinations through milder winters and stronger snowbird demand. • Available evidence suggests destination organizations were better positioned when they treated El Niño as a forecastable planning input , using seasonal outlooks to inform marketing, budgeting and stakeholder communication. They relied on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) seasonal outlooks months in advance, rather than as an unforecastable act of nature. • Transparent communication about uncertainty, avoiding overpromising and diversifying visitor bases rather than relying on a single weather-dependent product are key to preserving community and stakeholder trust. With CPC’s October 2026 outlook giving a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter and a 83 percent chance that it will surpass every event on record since 1950, the lessons of the past six cycles are directly actionable for destination organizations planning their next 12 to 18 months of marketing, budgeting and stakeholder communications.
Orange Beach, AL
Whistler, BC, Canada
Contents Executive Summary.......................................................................3 A Primer on El Niño for Destination Leaders.........................4 2026-27 El Niño Cycle: Regional Impact, Implications.......5 Economic and Tourism Impacts Across Six El Niño Cycles..............................................................6 Destination Organization Playbook.......................................10 Recommended Preparedness Actions for 2026–27...........15 Conclusion...................................................................................... 18 Appendix......................................................................................... 19 References...................................................................................... 21
DESTINATIONSINTERNATIONAL.ORG
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A PRIMER ON EL NIÑO FOR DESTINATION LEADERS
2026-27 EL NIÑO CYCLE: REGIONAL IMPACT, IMPLICATIONS
Great Lakes and U.S. Northeast destinations should plan for a warmer-than-normal early winter—with wet storms that may fall as rain rather than snow—and should prepare contingency messaging for skiing and early-season agritourism products. Mid-Atlantic coastal destinations should anticipate flooding risk as El Niño compounds the effects of long- term sea-level rise. NOAA’s 2026–27 outlook projects 15–20 high-tide flooding days across the region, with most monitoring stations potentially meeting or exceeding previous records. Increased onshore winds and storm activity during the October–April cool season could further elevate flooding risks, threatening infrastructure and visitor access. Southern U.S. Atlantic Coast and Gulf Coast destinations should note that El Niño has contributed to unusually subdued Atlantic hurricane activity in 2026. NOAA’s August update gave a 75 percent chance of a below-normal season, and no Atlantic hurricane had formed by late September, the latest on record since at least 1967. Hurricane Isaias and three tropical storms nonetheless made landfall along the Gulf Coast, a reminder that a quiet season is not a safe one.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a cyclical shift in Pacific Ocean surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure that recurs irregularly, typically every two to seven years. El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific rise at least 0.5°C above the long-term average for several consecutive months, weakening the easterly trade winds that normally push warm water toward Asia. The practical consequence for North America is a southward shift in the Pacific
jet stream, which tends to steer winter storms across the southern tier of the United States while leaving the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies and much of Canada milder and drier than average. The strongest events on record—1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16—produced the most extreme and best-documented tourism disruptions, which is why this report weights those cycles heavily even as it also traces the more moderate 1991–92, 2002–03, 2009–10 and 2023–24 events.
If the 2026–27 event develops as currently forecast, the historical pattern documented in this report suggests destination organizations should plan around the following working assumptions, understanding that any single event can deviate from historical precedent: Pacific Northwest and Western Canada mountain destinations should plan for a below-average, later- starting snow season, consistent with the pattern observed during previous major cycles and should activate snowmaking, marketing contingency and multi- resort pass messaging earlier in the fall than usual. Hawaii and Pacific Coast destinations face heightened coastal hazards following an exceptionally active hurricane season. By mid-October, three Category 5 hurricanes had formed, and accumulated cyclone energy surpassed the 2018 record. With El Niño-related sea-level anomalies potentially amplifying high tides, destinations should coordinate with emergency managers on beach access, ocean safety, transportation disruptions, and visitor rebooking. These hazards may compound El Niño- related winter storm risks. Southern Rocky Mountain destinations should prepare for an increased likelihood of above-average precipitation during the 2026–27 winter, with potential for substantial mountain snowfall, heavy rainfall, and localized flooding. Individual storms may produce significant snow accumulation at higher elevations while triggering flooding in lower- elevation communities, posing simultaneous risks to transportation, infrastructure, and visitor access.
A map of the United States, Canada, Central America and part of South America showing the effects of El Niño during winter in the Northern Hemisphere. (Image credit: NOAA)
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The U.S. Pacific Coast and Southwest: High-Tide, Storm Flooding Risk El Niño’s other signature North American impact is a wetter, stormier winter across California and the Southwest United States, driven by a southward-displaced, strengthened jet stream that increases the frequency and intensity of atmospheric rivers making landfall on the West Coast. NOAA’s outlook for May 2026 through April 2027 forecasts that a typical U.S. coastal location could experience 7 to 12 days of high- tide flooding, potentially setting a new record, concentrated on the Pacific coast during the cool season. • Los Angeles County’s beaches, which draw an estimated 70 million day-visits annually and support tens of thousands of tourism and recreation jobs, illustrate the stakes: county officials have formally linked El Niño-driven coastal flooding and erosion risk to long-term destination viability, prompting a countywide Coastal Resilience Initiative built around living shorelines and sediment management rather than only storm response. For winter 2026–27, that exposure is compounded inland: county modeling gives a 60 to 80 percent chance of debris flows in Palisades canyons scarred by the January 2025 fires, a risk that affects access to coastal and canyon recreation. • California has already moved from forecast to formal preparedness. On September 21, 2026, the governor declared a statewide state of emergency ahead of the expected El Niño, directing state emergency managers to pre- position resources and the Coastal Commission to act on emergency coastal permits within 24 hours. California destination organizations should align their winter messaging with state and county emergency guidance from the outset.
For destinations that depend on outdoor recreation, wine country access or coastal beach tourism, this precipitation can be either an asset or a liability depending on intensity, location and timing. • The 1997–98 El Niño cycle delivered record rainfall to California and, combined with abnormally high sea levels, caused hundreds of millions of dollars in flood and storm damage in the San Francisco Bay Area; at Point Reyes National Seashore, 95 percent of trails were closed at one point due to downed trees, erosion and washouts, with some closures lasting more than a year. • The Pacific Northwest coast, contrary to the typical pattern, was struck by an unusually severe sequence of six major offshore storms between 1997 and 2000, generating waves exceeding 33 feet and causing substantial coastal erosion damage to state parks along the Oregon and Washington coasts. The Southern United States and Snowbird Destinations: Potential Counter-Cyclical Demand El Niño winter cycles have historically meant good business for snowbird destinations in the southern United States. Florida, Arizona and the broader Sun Belt depend heavily on a seasonal influx of snowbirds—an estimated one million part-year residents in Florida alone, alongside the state’s approximately 143 million annual visitors — whose spending is driven primarily by warmer weather. • Canadian snowbirds alone are estimated to contribute close to $1.4 billion annually to Arizona’s economy, and milder, wetter El Niño winters in the Southeast and Southwest do not discourage this demand. Indeed, colder and
ECONOMIC AND TOURISM IMPACTS ACROSS SIX EL NIÑO CYCLES
St. Augustine, FL
Analysis of El Niño cycles since 1991 shows that individual cycles’ impact tends to be highly localized and often counterintuitive, splitting winners from losers within the same cycle, the same year and sometimes the same broader region. Some areas of the Western United States and Canada see snowfall drop well below normal in strong years, while other parts experience near-normal seasons. Meanwhile, warm-weather seasonal destinations tend to benefit as colder winters elsewhere drive visitors south.
The Western U.S. and Canada Ski and Winter-Sports Corridor: Recurring Exposure El Niño has historically had a highly uneven impact on western U.S. and Canadian winter destination organizations, often producing sharply different outcomes even within the same event and across the same broader region. A single strong episode can bring drought to one area while delivering near-normal or above- normal snowfall to a neighboring region within a hundred miles. These effects also compound with other climate signals, making El Niño alone an unreliable predictor of any single resort’s season. As a result, destination organizations and resort operators need to look beyond the headline strength of an El Niño event to understand its likely regional and local consequences.
• Spring snowpack across the western United States has declined by roughly 15 to 30 percent since the mid-20th century, with some of the steepest losses in Washington, Oregon and the Northern Rockies. El Niño winters compound that trend: in the Inland Northwest, seasonal snowfall has averaged about 70 percent of normal during El Niño years, and several strong events, including 1997–98, brought Spokane less than half its usual total. • In 2023–24, the El Niño cycle combined with a cold-phase Pacific Decadal Oscillation and an ongoing drought to decrease snowpack levels in British Columbia, forcing many winter resorts to delay openings by weeks.
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Economic and Tourism Impacts
Economic and Tourism Impacts
Florida Keys, FL
Okanagan Valley, BC, Canada
Agrotourism-Dependent Areas: Crop and Visitor Risk Move Together Agrotourism is unusually exposed because the visitor product and the crop are often the same asset. A winery, u-pick orchard, maple operation or harvest festival can lose production and visitor revenue in the same season, and one business may face several exposure windows: winter chill, spring fruit set, summer drought or wildfire and harvest timing. The El Niño signal also varies by region and commodity, so destination organizations should treat crop forecasts and visitor forecasts as a single planning input rather than assume a uniform outcome.
snowier northern winters may prompt increased seasonal visitor demand, although the scale of such demand will depend on exchange rates, policy conditions, travel costs and household finances. Atlantic and Gulf Coast Marine Tourism: Reef Heat and Hurricane Tradeoffs El Niño brings a mix of benefits and risks for marine tourism. On the positive side, El Niño typically reduces Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear, although the risk of a hurricane is not fully ruled out. An active hurricane season in 2023 demonstrated that other factors, such as unusually warm ocean waters, can offset El Niño-related effects. More damaging are mass coral-bleaching events that have often coincided with an El Niño cycle, including events during 1982-83, 1997- 98, 2014-17, and 2023-24. In 2023, a heatwave in the Florida Keys prompted widespread bleaching. In the Florida Keys, the 2023 marine heatwave produced the hottest regional water temperatures in the satellite record and widespread bleaching. Florida’s reef economy supports billions of dollars in tourism, fishing,
recreation and coastal protection, while reef- related diving and snorkeling alone support thousands of jobs. Reef-dependent destinations should therefore use NOAA Coral Reef Watch alerts as a standing seasonal planning input. Bleaching should also be described precisely as heat stress rather than automatic coral death; the 2016 Flower Garden Banks event was the site’s worst recorded bleaching but produced no confirmed mortality. Destination messaging should separate reef condition from access or closure status and maintain hurricane readiness even when basin-wide activity is forecast below normal. The exposure extends beyond the Florida Keys. Flower Garden Banks supports a small but specialized Texas and Louisiana liveaboard dive market, and Gulf wildlife tourism supports fishing, boating and wildlife-watching businesses across five states. National coastal tourism and recreation contributes more than $200 billion to GDP. Because a single major landfall can outweigh several quiet seasons, destination organizations should track reef heat, local access conditions and storm proximity separately rather than collapse them into one regional risk label.
off during the strong 2023–24 El Niño winter. Niagara icewine is directly vulnerable to winters that do not sustain the required cold, while Napa’s wet 1997–98 spring reduced fruit set but produced some concentrated, well-reviewed wines. • In Florida, by contrast, ENSO phase is only one factor among citrus greening, hurricanes and individual cold-air outbreaks. The operational lesson is to communicate probabilities, not promises, and to distinguish an El Niño-linked mechanism from broader climate volatility. Destination organizations should combine NOAA outlooks with U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) or Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada crop-condition, chill-hour and drought data; prepare down-vintage messaging before losses occur; pair weather-dependent products with less sensitive experiences; and coordinate with agricultural extension services. A detailed regional analysis appears in the appendix.
The strongest cases show both the scale and the attribution challenge.
• Wineries in the Okanagan region of British Columbia endured a sequence of freeze, drought and wildfire impacts across 2022–24, culminating in an almost complete 2024 vintage write-
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Positive Steps: Recurring Patterns of Effective Adaptation Treat the Seasonal Forecast as a Planning Tool, Not a Surprise. Lead time is one of the most useful planning advantages for destination organizations facing El Niño-related uncertainty. Destinations that used the runway provided by the initial ENSO outlook and updates to adjust marketing spend, inventory messaging and stakeholder communication often were better positioned once conditions arrived. • California’s mitigation efforts ahead of the 1997–98 winter, informed by the CPC’s summer 1997 outlook, are among the clearest documented examples of forecast-informed preparedness at a statewide scale. Northern U.S. utilities that adjusted natural gas purchasing based on the same forecast realized substantial savings that were passed to customers.
• The California Coastal Commission’s public- facing El Niño resource pages, updated through each recent cycle with current NOAA data, local risk context and permit guidance for property owners, are a useful institutional model for a destination organization-adjacent agency communicating both risk and opportunity honestly to the same audience. Pivot Marketing to Reframe Rather Than Deny the Conditions. Some of the more useful off-season and adverse- weather marketing examples reviewed for this report involve reframing conditions on the ground as distinct, marketable experiences rather than apologizing for them or overpromising a return to “normal.” • Cook County, Minnesota’s Dark Sky Festival and Hygge Festival explicitly rebrand winter darkness and unpredictable weather as differentiated assets, helping a county of 5,600 residents draw 1.2 million annual visitors and earn a state tourism marketing award. • Efforts by some California ski resorts to proactively use early “Godzilla” and “Super El Niño” forecasts to sell multi-resort season passes before the 2026-27 season begins have had mixed results. Vail Resorts reported season- pass unit sales down about 12 percent through mid-September, as skiers who remembered a historically poor 2025–26 season delayed purchases. Forecast-driven marketing works best when paired with honest expectation- setting and flexible purchase terms, since strong El Niño years have historically produced a mixed record for California snowfall.
DESTINATION ORGANIZATION PLAYBOOK
Prioritize Radical Transparency and Shape Public Narrative.
Case examples and crisis-management research suggest destination organizations are better positioned when they are forthright with staff and boards, recognize uncertainty and avoid promising outcomes the destination cannot control. • Publishing plain-language, regularly updated explanations of what El Niño was and was not likely to mean for their specific locations has been a proven low-cost, trust-building practice and a means to mitigate public pushback on tourism marketing during a disruptive season.
Available evidence across several El Niño cycles suggests that destinations were better positioned when they used forecast lead time to prepare flexible marketing, inventory planning and stakeholder communication before conditions fully materialized.
Rather than treating adverse conditions only as setbacks, some destinations appeared to benefit from repositioning available experiences, such as sunny winter recreation, indoor and cultural offerings, extended shoulder seasons or unaffected areas of the destination. The evidence also points to the value of diversified product mixes, cross-agency coordination and transparent
communication that acknowledges uncertainty. By contrast, recurring risks appear to include overpromising snow or sun based on ENSO phase alone, delaying resilience investments until after repeated costly events, treating El Niño’s geographically uneven impacts as a uniform national story and waiting to communicate with stakeholders until conditions have already deteriorated.
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Destination Organization Playbook
Destination Organization Playbook
Florida Keys, FL
Phoenix, AZ
Diversify Visitor Segments and Product. Diversification of visitor segments and products can be an effective way to reduce exposure to any single weather- dependent product line across multiple cycles. The Swiss Tourism Board’s asset-mapping exercise, undertaken in response to recognized climate variability in winter infrastructure, prompted a shift to diversified cultural and wellness tourism products that reduced reliance on snow-dependent visitation. • The same logic underlies the growing practice among mountain-town destinations of marketing summer hiking and mountain-biking packages with the same intensity as winter ski packages, converting a single-season economy into a genuinely bi-seasonal one and reducing the revenue swing of any single bad snow year. • For coastal and Sun Belt destinations, diversification runs the other direction: building indoor, weather-independent attractions and heritage-tourism assets alongside outdoor and beach product so that a wet or stormy El Niño winter does not eliminate the visitor’s reason to come.
Coordinate Across Regions and Sectors . Data-driven, cross-sector coordination has repeatedly proven more effective than isolated marketing response. Destinations facing a climate-driven disruption should benchmark performance against neighboring and competitor destinations, monitor booking-window and cancellation data by source market and adjust campaign geography toward markets that are recovering fastest rather than applying a uniform response everywhere. • A destination promoting a wetter-than-usual winter to visitors should simultaneously be coordinating with, not working around, the same local agencies managing flood response, debris-basin clearance and coastal-permit issuance, so that marketing messaging and public-safety messaging never contradict each other in front of residents or the media. • Multi-mountain pass alliances such as the major western ski coalitions functionally implement this principle by pooling risk across dozens of resorts spanning different microclimates, so that a visitor whose first-choice resort is snow-starved in a given El Niño winter can be redirected to a sister property elsewhere in the network without losing the sale entirely.
Integrate Crop and Visitor Forecasts. For agrotourism destinations, agricultural conditions are demand conditions. A helpful approach can be to combine CPC seasonal outlooks with crop-specific indicators, document normal yield and season length before a disruption and establish direct relationships with extension services and agriculture departments. This gives destination organizations a more credible basis for member guidance and creates the records needed for later disaster-assistance applications. Prepare Product-Specific Contingencies. Destinations should build down-vintage, shortened-season and delayed- bloom messaging before it is needed. A low- yield wine year may support a scarcity-and- quality story, while a shortened maple season or damaged u-pick crop may require redirecting visitors toward complementary food, cultural or indoor experiences. The objective is not to deny the loss but to preserve a reason to visit without making claims the operator cannot fulfill. Monitor Reefs as Operating Infrastructure. Reef-dependent destinations should place NOAA Coral Reef Watch alongside hurricane forecasts in the regular operations dashboard. Dive operators, marine sanctuaries,
emergency managers and destination organizations should agree in advance on
thresholds for visitor advisories, trip rebooking, reef-access messaging and heat-stress education. Communications should distinguish between bleaching, mortality and closure so that risk is neither minimized nor exaggerated. Separate Suppression from Safety. A forecast for fewer Atlantic storms does not eliminate landfall risk. Destinations should keep El Niño hurricane-suppression messaging separate from public-safety messaging, particularly when Atlantic temperatures are unusually warm or storms may form close to shore. The same probability-based discipline used for snowfall and flooding should govern coastal campaigns. Prepare Assistance Documentation. Recovery programs require evidence that differs from a marketing report. Destinations may find value in establishing normal-season baselines for yield, crop quality, visitor volume, bookings, cancellations and business revenue; identify which entity owns each record; and retain dated photographs and repair estimates after a physical loss. This preparation supports disaster- designation requests and helps hybrid farm- tourism businesses separate agricultural losses from eligible hospitality or retail losses.
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Destination Organization Playbook
Recommended Preparedness Actions
Negative Steps and Recurring Missteps Overpromising Snow or Sun Ahead of an Uncertain Season.
Treating a Regional Event as a National or Uniform Message. Because El Niño’s tourism effects are geographically bifurcated—punishing the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies while often benefiting the Southeast and Southwest—a uniform, one-size-fits-all industry message risks being wrong for roughly half of the destinations it reaches. • Post-event analysis of the 1997–98 cycle specifically flagged this as a global pattern: media and even some national forecasters described El Niño’s environmental impacts as though they affected an entire country uniformly, when in-country and inter-regional variation was often the more operationally important story. • Destination organizations and state or national associations that issued undifferentiated seasonal messaging risk both under-preparing vulnerable destinations and under-selling the opportunity available to destinations positioned to benefit. Reactive-Only Postures and Delayed Stakeholder Communication. Destinations that waited to communicate with lodging partners, outfitters and local government until conditions had already deteriorated consistently reported worse outcomes than those that initiated dialogue early. • This is consistent with broader crisis- management literature on tourism, which finds that continuous monitoring and a standing, rehearsed crisis-communication plan—reviewed and practiced before disruption occurs— meaningfully shortens recovery time and limits reputational damage relative to organizations improvising a response after the fact.
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A recurring risk for destinations is marketing seasonal weather conditions with greater certainty than the science supports. Campaigns promising exceptional snowfall or favorable weather based solely on El Niño conditions risk undermining credibility if actual conditions fall short. During the strong 2015–16 El Niño, Northeast ski destinations experienced unusually warm temperatures, limited snowfall, and shortened ski seasons. This example illustrates why destinations should distinguish seasonal probabilities from guarantees when developing promotional campaigns. • The corrective is not to avoid forecast-based marketing altogether but to communicate in probabilities rather than promises. Destinations should consider expressing outlooks as percentage likelihoods of above-, near- or below- normal conditions rather than deterministic predictions and pairing any promotional use of a favorable seasonal outlook with a genuine contingency message for visitors. Underinvestment in Advance Mitigation and Infrastructure. Another common theme is the failure of governments, industries and destination-adjacent institutions to promptly invest in resilience following a particularly consequential cycle. • Coastal California’s ongoing build-out of living-shoreline and sediment-management infrastructure only accelerated after repeated, costly El Niño-driven flooding events across 1997–98, 2015–16 and 2023–24, rather than being undertaken proactively between cycles.
RECOMMENDED PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS FOR 2026–27 Destinations may find value in building ENSO-informed scenario plans now, using CPC’s monthly Diagnostic Discussions (next scheduled updates run through the peak winter window) as a standing input to marketing and budget review. This includes:
Preparing differentiated, probability-based messaging for snow-dependent and sun-dependent product lines rather than a single organizational talking point, reflecting the geographic bifurcation documented throughout this report.
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Establishing coordination with local flood-control, avalanche-forecasting and public-safety agencies well ahead of peak winter, so that marketing and safety messaging remain aligned if conditions turn severe.
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Stress-testing financial reserves and cancellation/rebooking policies against a plausible worst-case single-season revenue shortfall, informed by current ENSO forecasts.
Communicating proactively and transparently with residents and stakeholders about both the opportunity and the risk the coming winter presents, consistent with the trust-preservation practices identified above.
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Recommended Preparedness Actions
Recommended Preparedness Actions
Government Assistance and Recovery Channels When losses exceed reserves and private insurance, eligibility often divides along the same line as the business model: agricultural production on one side and tourism or hospitality on the other. Destination organizations should map both channels before an event and help members document losses in the format each program requires. United States: Agricultural Production USDA’s Farm Service Agency maintains standing tools that include Emergency Farm Loans after a qualifying disaster designation; the Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program for crops that lack conventional federal crop insurance; the Tree Assistance Program for disaster-damaged trees, bushes and vines; and the Emergency Conservation Program for farmland repair. Emergency Farm Loans may cover qualifying production or physical losses, while Tree Assistance Program deadlines can begin when the loss becomes apparent. Federal crop insurance, including Whole-Farm Revenue Protection, must generally be arranged before losses occur. The May 2023 upstate New York freeze illustrates the designation pathway: 31 counties received a federal agricultural disaster designation that unlocked emergency lending for affected producers. Destination organizations should monitor USDA declarations and the U.S. Drought Monitor alongside seasonal climate outlooks because those administrative triggers, not the El Niño label, determine access.
Canada: Agricultural Production AgriRecovery is a federal-provincial-territorial framework for extraordinary recovery costs after a disaster; producers do not apply to the framework directly, and ordinary production or revenue losses generally fall to the standing Business Risk Management suite, including AgriStability, AgriInsurance and AgriInvest. A province or territory requests a joint assessment, after which a targeted initiative may reimburse eligible extraordinary recovery costs rather than ordinary lost revenue. British Columbia’s 2023 drought- and-wildfire response shows how this process can support feed, water and other exceptional expenses. Broader provincial disaster programs may also receive support through Public Safety Canada’s Disaster Financial Assistance Arrangements. Operators should understand which expenses belong to the standing risk- management suite and which may qualify only after a special initiative is created.
Positioning Before a Loss Maintain baseline yield, season-length, booking, cancellation and revenue records; publish a one- page member guide that distinguishes USDA from SBA eligibility; and build relationships with agriculture departments, regional development agencies and state or provincial tourism offices in parallel. Disaster designations and supplemental funding move faster when evidence and institutional contacts already exist.
Gulf Coast, Florida
United States: Tourism and Destination Organizations Small Business Administration (SBA) disaster lending generally excludes agricultural production, but a qualifying tasting room, event venue, shop, lodging component or other nonfarm business activity may be eligible for an Economic Injury Disaster Loan or a Business Physical Disaster Loan after a federal declaration. Economic Injury Disaster Loans address working-capital needs rather than lost profit; physical disaster loans address damaged real estate, equipment and inventory and may include additional mitigation funding. A hybrid operator may therefore need to document crop and nonfarm business losses separately. The Economic Development Administration is the more relevant federal channel for state tourism offices and destination organizations, particularly through disaster supplemental and travel, tourism and outdoor- recreation funding. Prior federal tourism funding has flowed through state tourism offices to local destination organizations, making that relationship an important recovery channel. Gulf Coast organizations may also consider RESTORE Act programs for eligible ecosystem-restoration, resilience, economic-recovery and tourism projects; these are standing regional resources rather than El Niño-specific relief.
Ontario, Canada
Canada: Tourism and Destination Organizations
Canada’s regional development agencies— including ACOA, CED, FedDev Ontario, FedNor, PrairiesCan, PacifiCan and CanNor—are the closest analog to EDA and have administered tourism and disaster-recovery initiatives. Recent tourism programs have supported small and medium-sized businesses, not-for-profits and local product development. ACOA’s Hurricane Fiona Recovery Fund demonstrates that event- specific support can reach affected communities, businesses and tourism operators when impacts are regional in scale. Destination organizations should maintain relationships with both their regional development agency and provincial tourism office rather than wait for a special fund to be announced.
Dividing Responsibilities Producers should retain crop, insurance and physical-loss records; tourism businesses should maintain payroll, debt, booking and cancellation evidence; and destination organizations should aggregate regional indicators without substituting estimates for member documentation. The destination organization’s most useful role is to circulate eligibility guidance, identify the correct agency contact, support a designation request with regional evidence and coordinate with the state or provincial tourism office. It should not promise that a climate event or forecast automatically qualifies an applicant for assistance.
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APPENDIX: Regional Agrotourism Exposure
warmth produced an agricultural disaster declaration across 31 New York counties, with statewide apple losses estimated near 20 percent and much larger losses at some orchards and vineyard blocks. Because the freeze preceded the formal 2023 El Niño declaration, it is better presented as warm-spring volatility than strict ENSO attribution. Warmer winters have also shortened maple collection, while delayed foliage can shift peak demand relative to campaign timing; the available research does not isolate El Niño as the sole driver of either trend. Campaign calendars should therefore be adjustable rather than tied permanently to historic peak dates. Florida and the Southeast Florida citrus is a counterexample to a simple El Niño-loss narrative. Severe crop-damaging freezes have often occurred during ENSO-neutral winters, while both El Niño and La Niña circulation patterns can reduce the likelihood of the coldest intrusions. Individual outbreaks can still cause major losses during a developing event, and citrus greening, hurricanes and storm track may matter more than ENSO phase. Destination organizations should describe El Niño winters as probabilistically favorable for citrus tourism, not guaranteed protection. Texas Hill Country and the Southern Plains El Niño winter and spring precipitation can provide welcome drought relief for Hill Country wineries and peach operations, but the benefit may be temporary or reversed by a following La Niña. Declining chill-hour accumulation is a separate long-term risk that can limit fruit set even in a wetter year. Because many operators combine orchard, winery, retail, events and wholesale activity, one production shock can affect several revenue streams at once. Prairies and Corn Belt Pumpkin patches, corn mazes and harvest festivals operate mainly in early autumn, outside El Niño’s strongest winter signal. Warm, dry conditions can support pumpkin production and visitor comfort, yet the same pattern can deepen an existing drought, reduce corn-maze height and strain the row-crop side of a diversified farm. The appropriate planning question is therefore not whether El Niño is categorically good or bad, but how current soil moisture and drought conditions interact with the seasonal outlook.
This appendix summarizes the principal regional mechanisms identified in the source research. Figures describe sector exposure or documented losses during El Niño-influenced periods; they should not be treated as proof that ENSO alone caused every outcome. Each regional entry distinguishes the operating mechanism from the headline climate phase. The practical value is in identifying what to monitor—chill accumulation, bloom timing, drought, access, crop quality or visitor-season timing—and in matching that indicator to a contingency plan. Quebec and Atlantic Canada Quebec’s maple and sugar-shack economy depends on sustained freezing nights followed by thawing days. Earlier, less stable springs can shift or compress the season; Nova Scotia research has documented a substantial long-term decline in sap yields as production begins earlier. Mild El Niño winters create a plausible version of the same risk, but destination organizations should not substitute the ENSO label for local evidence. Tracking season start, season length, yield and visitor timing year over year provides a stronger planning record. Ontario Niagara icewine offers a direct product mechanism because grapes must remain on the vine until temperatures reach at least -8°C. Warm winters can ripen fruit early, delay harvest cold and dehydrate grapes before the required freeze. Growers also identified the developing 2015–16 El Niño as a risk to apples through early dormancy break followed by frost. The visitor-economy exposure is material: a large share of VQA wine and most icewine is sold directly through winery retail, and Ontario’s broader agritourism economy was valued at C$633 million ($481 million) annually. Outcomes still depend on timing; a mild winter can produce an adequate harvest if cold arrives during the correct window. Upstate New York and New England Finger Lakes and Hudson Valley wine, tree fruit, fall foliage and maple syrup create several climate-sensitive visitor seasons. New York’s wine sector supports substantial visitor spending, while fall foliage is a major regional travel product across New England. The 2015–16 winter was much warmer than normal and was followed by the region’s driest and warmest growing season in 50 years. A May 2023 freeze after early
CONCLUSION
Across six major El Niño cycles since 1982, the destination organizations that fared best shared a common posture: they treated El Niño as a recurring, forecastable planning variable rather than an unpredictable act of nature, communicated with their communities and visitors in the language of probability rather than promise, and used the months of forecast lead time NOAA reliably provides to diversify product, coordinate with public-safety partners and adjust messaging by region rather than applying
a single uniform narrative. As a very strong and potentially record-setting El Niño develops for winter 2026–27, those same practices—not a new playbook but the disciplined application of lessons already documented across 1982-83, 1991–92, 1997–98, 2002–03, 2009–10, 2015–16 and 2023–24—offer the clearest path for U.S. and Canadian destination organizations to protect both their visitor economies and their community relationships through the coming cycle.
A Note on Sources This report draws on peer-reviewed climate-economics research, NOAA and Climate Prediction Center primary forecast products, federal and state agency assessments (including the California Coastal Commission and California Ocean Protection Council), contemporaneous news coverage of individual El Niño winters and current industry guidance from Destinations International and allied tourism-research organizations. Full citations appear as footnotes throughout. Given the fast-moving nature of the developing 2026–27 event, destination organizations are encouraged to consult NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center directly (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) for the most current monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussion ahead of any planning decision.
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Appendix
References
REFERENCES AAFC / Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, “A Guide to AgriRecovery,” https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/programs/ agrirecovery/guide AAFC / Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, “AgriRecovery Initiative to Support Farms Affected by Drought,” June 18, 2026, https://www.canada.ca/en/agriculture-agri-food/news/2026/06/agrirecovery-initiative-to-support-farms-affected-by- drought.html Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency, “ACOA Ministerial Briefing 2025,” https://www.canada.ca/en/atlantic-canada- opportunities/corporate/transparency/transition-materials/ministerial-transition-2025/acoa-ministerial-briefing.html AP via ABC News, “It’s Been an Intense Hurricane Season in the Pacific and There’s a Long Way to Go,” September 24, 2026, https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/intense-hurricane-season-pacific-long-136738234 BC Business, “Business Climate: Can the Okanagan Wine Industry Survive Climate Change?,” https://bcbusiness.ca/ industries/environment/business-climate-can-the-okanagan-wine-industry-survive-climate-change/ BC Government News, “Federal-Provincial Support Helping Disaster-Affected Farmers,” https://news.gov.bc.ca/ releases/2023AF0056-001624
Napa, CA
Bestsnow.net, “Ski Areas Favored by El Niño,” https://bestsnow.net/La_Nina.htm
CBC News, “Ontario Apple Farmers Hope Weird Winter Weather Won’t Damage 2016 Crop,” https://amp.cbc.ca/news/ canada/ottawa/apple-farmers-weather-ontario-winter-1.3382267 CBC News, “Ontario Sees Dramatic Drop in Icewine Production Over Last 5 Years,” https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ hamilton/niagara-icewine-2023-production-cold-fronts-1.6741339 CBC News, “Shortage of Snow Amid Drought and El Niño Causing Concern at B.C. Interior Ski Hills,” November 29, 2023, https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/el-nino-drought-bc-interior-ski-hills-1.7043016 Changnon, Stanley A., “Impacts of 1997-98 El Niño-Generated Weather in the United States,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80, no. 9 (1999), https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/80/9/1520- 0477_1999_080_1819_ioenog_2_0_co_2.xml Columbia Climate School, “A Climate Expert Explains Why Atmospheric Rivers Are Causing Historic Rainfall in California,” February 2024, https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2024/02/05/a-climate-expert-explains-why-atmospheric-rivers-are- causing-historic-rainfall-in-california/
Regional Planning Priorities Across regions, four practices recur: combine crop and visitor forecasts; prepare alternative-product and down-vintage campaigns in advance; distinguish ENSO evidence from broader climate trends; and coordinate with extension services, agriculture departments and tourism partners. These steps improve both visitor communication and the documentation needed if losses later trigger assistance programs. The monitoring calendar should follow the product rather than the ENSO headline. Winter chill and snowpack matter before bloom; spring temperature swings affect fruit set; summer drought, wildfire smoke and marine heat affect access and visitor experience; and autumn conditions determine harvest festivals and foliage timing. A single annual El Niño briefing is therefore insufficient for diversified destinations. Assign owners and update dates to each indicator, and connect every threshold to a specific marketing, operations or member-communication action. Review the calendar with operators before each exposure window so that new local observations can change the plan before visitor expectations and campaign spending are fixed.
Coastal California Wine tourism adds a crop-and-access dimension to California’s flood exposure. During the 1997–98 El Niño, an abnormally wet spring contributed to poor fruit set in Napa while statewide storms and flooding disrupted roads, trails and visitor movement. Smaller yields later produced concentrated, well-reviewed wines at some wineries, showing that the loss mechanism may be volume and access rather than a complete collapse in product quality. Destination organizations can prepare a scarcity-and-quality narrative, but it should accompany honest reporting on closures and reduced supply. Pacific Northwest and Western Canada Warm, dry El Niño winters that weaken snowpack can also reduce winter chill or increase bloom-time frost exposure for orchard and wine regions. Washington and Oregon orchards are particularly sensitive to dormancy and bloom timing. In British Columbia’s Okanagan Valley, a December 2022 cold outbreak destroyed an estimated 54 percent of the grape crop, followed by drought and wildfire that cut short the visitor season and a January 2024 freeze that producers described as an almost complete write-off of the 2024 vintage. Roughly one-quarter of Okanagan wineries were reported for sale by early 2024. The sequence demonstrates compounding multi-year exposure rather than a clean single-event attribution: agricultural production, tasting-room demand and the regional winter-sports product weakened during the same broader period. Monitoring must therefore continue across seasons rather than end with the winter forecast.
Congress.gov / CRS, “Federal Disaster Assistance for Agriculture,” https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF10565
CPR News, “Vails Pass Sales Dip Under Memories of No Snow Last Year,” September 28, 2026, https://www.cpr.org/2026/09/28/vail-pass-sales-down-no-snow/
Data Appeal, “Crisis Management: How to Build Destination Resilience,” https://datappeal.io/rethinking-destination- strategy-in-uncertain-times-building-resilience-with-tourism-intelligence/ Destinations International, “5 Things U.S. DMO Leaders Should Do Today,” https://destinationsinternational.org/blog/5- things-us-dmo-leaders-should-do-today Destinations International, “We’ve Been Here Before: What DMOs Learned from the Pandemic to Succeed Today,” https:// destinationsinternational.org/blog/weve-been-here-what-dmos-learned-pandemic-succeed-today Farmtario, “Ontario Agritourism Study Highlights $633M Economic Impact,” https://farmtario.com/news/ontario- agritourism-study-highlights-633m-economic-impact/
Finger Lakes Wine Alliance, “Vintage Reports,” https://fingerlakeswinealliance.com/trade/vintage-reports/
Florida Department of Environmental Protection, “RESTORE,” https://floridadep.gov/wra/deepwater-horizon/content/ restore
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References
References
Florida’s Coral Reef, “Value” and “Tourism,” https://floridascoralreef.org/topics/value
NOAA Tides and Currents, “Annual High Tide Flooding Outlook, May 2026–April 2027,” https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ high-tide-flooding/annual-outlook.html Office of the Governor of Florida, “Governor Ron DeSantis Announces Another Record-Breaking Year for Florida Tourism,” February 20, 2026, https://www.flgov.com/eog/news/press/2026/governor-ron-desantis-announces-another-record- breaking-year-florida-tourism Protect Our Winters, “How Climate Change Will Impact the Snowsports Industry,” https://protectourwinters.org/how- climate-change-will-impact-the-snowsports-industry/ Santa Monica Daily Press, “County Outlines El Niño Storm Preparations as Forecasters Warn of Historic Season,” September 4, 2026, https://www.smdp.com/county-outlines-el-nino-storm-preparations-as-forecasters-warn-of-historic- season/
Florida Keys Weekly, “Ocean Temps Around the Florida Keys Surpass Record-Breaking Coral Bleaching Year,” July 16, 2026, https://keysweekly.com/42/ocean-temps-around-the-florida-keys-surpass-record-breaking-coral-bleaching-year/ KEDT / Houston Public Media, “Coral Reefs Face Bleaching Threats as Texas Gulf Trends Warmer,” September 14, 2026, https://www.kedt.org/texas-news/2026-09-14/coral-reefs-face-bleaching-threats-as-texas-gulf-trends-warmer KelownaNow, “Wine Column: Everybody Loves a Comeback Story,” 2026, https://www.kelownanow.com/watercooler/news/ news/Food_Drink/Wine_column_Everybody_loves_a_comeback_story LAist, “Hurricane Marie Reshaped Southern California’s Coastline. El Niño Could Be Worse,” September 15, 2026, https:// laist.com/news/climate-environment/hurricane-marie-reshaped-southern-california-coastline-el-nino-could-be-worse Madden Media, “What Does Sustainable Travel Mean for Your Destination? A DMO’s Guide,” https://maddenmedia.com/ sustainable-travel-mean-for-your-destination-a-guide-for-dmos/ Marketing-Interactive, “Six Years on, Tasmania’s Off Season Proves Consistency Still Wins in Marketing,” https://www. marketing-interactive.com/six-years-on-tasmania-off-season-proves-consistency-still-wins-in-marketing Marriner Marketing, “Shoulder Season Travel Marketing Strategies that Work,” https://www.marriner.com/blog/off-season- on-point-marketing-strategies-to-capture-new-travelers/
SBA, “Disaster Recovery,” https://www.sba.gov/disaster/
Schumer.senate.gov, “Schumer, Gillibrand Secure Federal Agriculture Disaster Designation for 31 Counties,” https://www. schumer.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/schumer-gillibrand-secure-federal-agriculture-disaster-designation-for- 31-counties-after-late-may-deep-freeze-devastated-vineyard-and-orchard-crops-across-upstate-ny_unlocking-critical- federal-funds-for-impacted-farms Statistics Canada, “Leading Indicator of International Arrivals to Canada, August 2026,” The Daily, September 11, 2026, https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260911/dq260911b-eng.htm StormBag, “Super El Niño 2026–27: What NOAA’s Forecast Means,” https://stormbag.co/blogs/stormbag-flood-protection- blog/super-el-nino-2026–27-what-noaas-off-the-charts-forecast-means-for-the-year-ahead The Weather Channel, “Atlantic Hurricane Season Peak: A Record Hurricane Delay,” September 10, 2026, https://weather. com/2026/09/10/storms/hurricane/atlantic-hurricane-season-quiet-during-peak-september Travel and Tour World, “Arizona’s Canadian Snowbird Bill Set to Boost Tourism, Economy,” https://www.travelandtourworld. com/news/article/arizonas-canadian-snowbird-bill-set-to-boost-tourism-economy-with-extended-stays-for-canadian- visitors-what-you-need-to-know/ UF/IFAS Extension Monroe County, “El Niño and Coral Bleaching,” https://blogs.ifas.ufl.edu/monroeco/2026/06/18/el-nino- and-coral-bleaching/ UN Press Release, “International Study Released: Lessons from the 1997-1998 El Niño: Once Burned, Twice Shy?” https:// press.un.org/en/2000/20001027.unep76.doc.html USDA Farm Service Agency, “Disaster Assistance Programs,” https://www.fsa.usda.gov/resources/programs/disaster- assistance-programs USDA Farm Service Agency, “USDA Extends Supplemental Disaster Relief Program Application Deadline,” August 10, 2026, https://www.fsa.usda.gov/news-events/news/08-10-2026/usda-extends-supplemental-disaster-relief-program- application-deadline U.S. Economic Development Administration, “Disaster Recovery,” https://www.eda.gov/strategic-initiatives/disaster- recovery Vail Resorts, “Vail Resorts Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2026 Results and Provides Fiscal 2027 Outlook,”September 28, 2026, https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/vail-resorts-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full- year-fiscal-2026-results-and-provides-fiscal-2027-outlook-302891878.html Vail Resorts, “Is Winter About to Show Off? Vail Resorts Announces 2026/27 Opening Dates as Super El Niño Builds Anticipation for Great Powder,” August 18, 2026, https://news.vailresorts.com/2026-08-18-Is-Winter-About-to-Show-Off- Vail-Resorts-Announces-2026-27-Opening-Dates-as-Super-El-Nino-Builds-Anticipation-for-Great-Powder Vermont Business Magazine, “How Climate Change Is Impacting the Maple Syrup Industry,” https://vermontbiz.com/ news/2024/february/15/how-climate-change-impacting-maple-syrup-industry Wine Industry Advisor, “El Nino Brings New Concerns to Finger Lakes Vineyards,” https://wineindustryadvisor. com/2016/01/04/el-nino-concerns-finger-lakes-vineyards/
Napa Valley Vintners, “Napa Valley Vintage Reports,” https://napavintners.com/napa_valley/vintage_charts.asp
NOAA, “NOAA Maintains Prediction for Below-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season,” August 6, 2026, https://www.noaa.gov/ news-release/noaa-maintains-prediction-for-below-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season NOAA Climate.gov, “El Niño Means an Even Floodier Future Is on the Coastal Horizon,” https://www.climate.gov/news- features/blogs/enso/el-nino-means-even-floodier-future-coastal-horizon NOAA Climate.gov, “NOAA and Partners Race to Rescue Remaining Florida Corals from Historic Ocean Heat Wave,” https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/noaa-and-partners-race-rescue-remaining-florida-corals-historic- ocean NOAA Fisheries, “Coral Reefs Fuel Florida’s Economy—Restoration Ensures Their Future,” https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/ feature-story/coral-reefs-fuel-floridas-economy-restoration-ensures-their-future
NOAA National Weather Service, “El Nino and La Nina Information,” https://www.weather.gov/twc/enso
NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center, "2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook (August Update),” August 6, 2026, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane2026/August/hurricane.shtml NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center, “ENSO Diagnostic Discussion,” August 13, 2026, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_aug2026/ensodisc.shtml NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center, “ENSO Diagnostic Discussion,” September 10, 2026, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_sep2026/ensodisc.shtml NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center, “Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks,” September 17, 2026, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html NOAA Ocean Service, “El Niño and High Tide Flooding, a Possible Double Whammy for Some Coastal Communities in 2026,” https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/may26/el-nino-flooding.html NOAA, “El Nino Forms, Expected to Strengthen, Say NOAA Forecasters,” https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino- forms-expected-to-strengthen-say-noaa-forecasters NOAA, “El Niño Prolongs Longest Global Coral Bleaching Event,” https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/el-ni-o-prolongs- longest-global-coral-bleaching-event NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center, “ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions,” https://www.cpc.ncep. noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
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